Ontario Promises $8.5B in Airport Magic, Refuses to Show the Math
Ontario announced this week that expanding the Billy Bishop Toronto Island airport would generate $8.5 billion in annual economic impact, a figure roughly equivalent to the GDP of Moldova, derived from a methodology the province has classified somewhere between 'proprietary' and 'we'd rather not say.'
Pressed for the underlying calculations, officials offered the time-honoured Canadian compromise of a confident nod and a change of subject. The number, they assured reporters, came from consultants. The consultants, in turn, came from somewhere. Everyone involved is very sure about the decimal point.
Critics noted that $8.5 billion a year would imply each additional Porter passenger personally tipping the GTA economy roughly the cost of a downtown condo. Supporters countered that the figure also includes 'induced effects,' 'catalytic effects,' and the warm civic feeling one gets watching a Q400 bank over the harbour.
The province's own transparency guidelines suggest releasing the modelling assumptions behind major infrastructure claims. The province's own response was that the guidelines are a guideline.
When one reporter asked whether the math could at least be shown on a napkin, a spokesperson explained the napkin was also commercially sensitive. The airport expansion is expected to break ground shortly after the calculator does.